Statistics & Data

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Glossary (36)

68–95–99.7
For a normal (bell-shaped) distribution, about 68%68\% of values lie within 11 SD of the mean, 95%95\% within 22, and 99.7%99.7\% within 33.
The Normal Distribution › The Empirical Rule and the Table
Areas from Φ(z)\Phi(z)
The table gives Φ(z)=P(Z<z)\Phi(z) = P(Z < z) for the standard normal ZZ.
The Normal Distribution › Using the Standard Normal Table
Averages become normal
Whatever the shape of the population, the distribution of the sample mean xˉ\bar x of nn independent observations gets closer to a normal curve as nn grows, with mean μ\mu and SD σ/n\sigma/\sqrt n.
Sampling Distributions › The Central Limit Theorem
Binomial setting
Fixed number nn of independent trials, each a success with the same probability pp.
Binomial and Geometric › The Binomial Distribution
Cause needs an experiment
An observational study records what happens; an experiment assigns treatments.
Sampling and Experiments › Experiments versus Observation
Correlation rr
A scatter plot shows pairs (x,y)(x, y).
Two Variables › Scatter Plots and Correlation
Correlation is not causation
A strong rr says the variables move together.
Two Variables › Scatter Plots and Correlation
Estimate ±\pm margin
A confidence interval is estimate±z∗⋅SE\text{estimate} \pm z^*\cdot\text{SE}.
Confidence Intervals › Intervals for a Proportion
Every value visible
For a small quantitative data set, a dot plot puts one dot per value above a number line, stacking repeats.
Data and Displays › Dot Plots and Stem-and-Leaf Plots
Expected value and variance
A random variable XX assigns a number to each outcome; its probability distribution lists each value with its probability (summing to 11).
Random Variables › Discrete Random Variables
Fair, favourable, unfavourable
A game is fair when the expected net gain is 00.
Random Variables › Expected Value in Decisions
Fences at 1.5 IQR1.5\,\text{IQR}
The fences are Q1−1.5 IQRQ_1 - 1.5\,\text{IQR} and Q3+1.5 IQRQ_3 + 1.5\,\text{IQR}.
Percentiles and Box Plots › Outliers and the Fences
Five numbers
The five-number summary is minimum, Q1Q_1, median, Q3Q_3, maximum.
Percentiles and Box Plots › Quartiles and the Five-Number Summary
How good is the line?
r2r^2 is the fraction of the variation in yy explained by the line: r2=1−∑(y−y^)2∑(y−yˉ)2r^2 = 1 - \dfrac{\sum(y - \hat y)^2}{\sum(y - \bar y)^2}.
Two Variables › Residuals and r2r^2
Linear changes of units
Adding cc to every value shifts the mean and median by cc and leaves every measure of spread unchanged.
Center and Spread › Shifting and Scaling
Linear combinations
For any random variables, E[aX+bY]=aE[X]+bE[Y]E[aX + bY] = aE[X] + bE[Y].
Random Variables › Combining Random Variables
Mean and median
The mean xˉ=∑xin\bar x = \dfrac{\sum x_i}{n} is the fair-share average.
Center and Spread › Measures of Center
Means of samples
Take a random sample of size nn from a population with mean μ\mu and standard deviation σ\sigma.
Sampling Distributions › The Sampling Distribution of a Mean
Null, alternative, pp-value
A test starts from the null hypothesis H0H_0 (nothing is going on: p=0.5p = 0.5, μ=100\mu = 100) and an alternative HaH_a.
Hypothesis Tests › The Logic of a Test
Planning nn
The margin of error for a proportion is m=z∗p(1−p)/nm = z^*\sqrt{p(1 - p)/n}.
Confidence Intervals › Margin of Error and Sample Size
Population, sample, bias
A population is everyone you want to describe; a sample is the part you actually measure.
Sampling and Experiments › Samples and Bias
Proportions
A sample proportion p^\hat p of successes has mean pp and standard deviation p(1−p)n\sqrt{\dfrac{p(1-p)}{n}}, approximately normal when np≥10np \ge 10 and n(1−p)≥10n(1-p) \ge 10.
Sampling Distributions › The Sampling Distribution of a Proportion
Range, IQR, standard deviation
The range is max minus min.
Center and Spread › Measures of Spread
Reading a histogram
A histogram groups values into equal-width bins and draws a bar whose height is the count in each bin.
Data and Displays › Histograms and Shape
Regression line
The least-squares line y^=a+bx\hat y = a + bx minimizes the sum of squared vertical residuals y−y^y - \hat y.
Two Variables › The Least-Squares Line
Skew points to the tail
Skewed right means the long tail is on the right (a few large values).
Data and Displays › Histograms and Shape
Standardizing
A z-score says how many standard deviations a value sits from the mean: z=x−μσz = \dfrac{x - \mu}{\sigma}.
The Normal Distribution › Z-Scores
Stratified, cluster, systematic
A stratified sample divides the population into groups (strata) and takes a random sample within each, so every group is represented.
Sampling and Experiments › Sampling Designs
The 1.5 IQR1.5\,\text{IQR} rule
A value is an outlier if it lies below Q1−1.5 IQRQ_1 - 1.5\,\text{IQR} or above Q3+1.5 IQRQ_3 + 1.5\,\text{IQR}.
Percentiles and Box Plots › Quartiles and the Five-Number Summary
The ppth percentile
The ppth percentile is the value below which p%p\% of the data falls.
Percentiles and Box Plots › Percentiles
The tt interval
For a mean with unknown σ\sigma: xˉ±t∗sn\bar x \pm t^*\dfrac{s}{\sqrt n}, where t∗t^* comes from the tt distribution with n−1n - 1 degrees of freedom.
Confidence Intervals › Intervals for a Mean
The tt test
For a mean: t=xˉ−μ0s/nt = \dfrac{\bar x - \mu_0}{s/\sqrt n} with n−1n - 1 degrees of freedom.
Hypothesis Tests › Tests for Means and Two Samples
Two kinds of data
A variable is categorical when it sorts things into groups (eye color, favorite sport) and quantitative when it measures an amount (height, test score).
Data and Displays › Categorical and Quantitative
Two ways to be wrong
A Type I error rejects a true H0H_0 (probability α\alpha).
Hypothesis Tests › Errors and Power
Waiting for the first success
Repeat independent trials with success probability pp until the first success.
Binomial and Geometric › The Geometric Distribution
When the bars look like a bell
When np≥10np \ge 10 and n(1−p)≥10n(1-p) \ge 10, the binomial is close to normal with the same mean npnp and SD np(1−p)\sqrt{np(1-p)}, so z-scores answer "at least kk" questions without summing dozens of terms.
Binomial and Geometric › The Normal Approximation