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Linear AlgebraHardMarkov Chains & Long-Run Behavior

Markov Chains & Long-Run Behavior · Hard problem

Solving a puzzle is modelled as a Markov chain with states Start, Partway, Success and Fail (the last two absorbing). From Start, the chain moves to Partway with probability 3/53/5 and to Fail with probability 2/52/5. From Partway, it moves to Success with probability 1/21/2 and to Fail with probability 1/21/2. If an attempt fails, a fresh, independent attempt is made from Start. What is the expected number of attempts needed for the first success? Express your answer as a common fraction.