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Counting & ProbabilityChallengeConditional Probability, Independence & Bayes

Conditional Probability, Independence & Bayes · Challenge problem

In a game show there are three doors; a car is behind one of them, chosen uniformly at random, and goats are behind the other two. You pick door 11. The host, who knows where the car is, then opens one of doors 22 and 33 that hides a goat. When both of those doors hide goats, this host opens door 33 with probability 14\tfrac14 and door 22 with probability 34\tfrac34. The host opens door 33. What is the probability that you win the car if you switch to door 22? Express your answer as a common fraction.