Counting & ProbabilityChallengeConditional Probability, Independence & Bayes
Conditional Probability, Independence & Bayes · Challenge problem
In a game show there are three doors; a car is behind one of them, chosen uniformly at random, and goats are behind the other two. You pick door . The host, who knows where the car is, then opens one of doors and that hides a goat. When both of those doors hide goats, this host opens door with probability and door with probability . The host opens door . What is the probability that you win the car if you switch to door ? Express your answer as a common fraction.