MathCastle
Counting & ProbabilityChallengeConditional Probability, Independence & Bayes

Conditional Probability, Independence & Bayes · Challenge problem

Ann and Bea take turns shooting at a target, Ann first, and the first to hit it wins. Ann hits on each of her shots with probability 13\tfrac13 and Bea on each of hers with probability 12\tfrac12, independently. Given that Bea wins, what is the probability that she won with her very first shot? Express your answer as a common fraction.