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Counting & ProbabilityChallengeConditional Probability, Independence & Bayes

Conditional Probability, Independence & Bayes · Challenge problem

In a town, a sunny day is followed by a sunny day with probability 34\tfrac34 and by a rainy day with probability 14\tfrac14; a rainy day is followed by a rainy day with probability 12\tfrac12 and by a sunny day with probability 12\tfrac12. Today (day 00) is sunny. Given that it rains on day 33, what is the probability that it rained on day 11? Express your answer as a common fraction.