MathCastle
Counting & ProbabilityChallengeExpected Value, Linearity & Advanced Probability

Expected Value, Linearity & Advanced Probability · Challenge problem

A biased coin shows heads with probability 13\tfrac13. Find the expected number of flips until the pattern HTHHTH first appears.

The answer is a fraction mn\tfrac{m}{n} in lowest terms; find m+nm + n.