MathCastle
Counting & ProbabilityChallengeConditional Probability, Independence & Bayes

Conditional Probability, Independence & Bayes · Challenge problem

One of three prisoners AA, BB, CC is to be pardoned, chosen uniformly at random. Prisoner AA asks the guard to name one of the other two who will be executed; the guard (choosing uniformly between them when free to) truthfully names BB. Find the probability that CC is the one pardoned.

Express your answer as a common fraction.