Counting & ProbabilityChallengeConditional Probability, Independence & Bayes
Conditional Probability, Independence & Bayes · Challenge problem
One of three prisoners , , is to be pardoned, chosen uniformly at random. Prisoner asks the guard to name one of the other two who will be executed; the guard (choosing uniformly between them when free to) truthfully names . Find the probability that is the one pardoned.
Express your answer as a common fraction.